Trump Lost The 2020 Presidential Election

Trump lost the 2020 Presidential Election. Trump lost because enough people in enough states decided that Joe Biden was the better choice.  Trump lost because the Republican Party is on a national level non-competitive in the Northeast and starting to show cracks in the South and Southwest. 

Trump lost because the Republican Party has reached the current limit of political popularity that it can have throughy open appeals to white racist resentment, white nationalism, anti-intellectualism, anti-urban feelings, conspiracy theories, and various other dubious emotions or stances. Trump lost because even some otherwise Republican leaning voters looked at Trump's general corruption and specific ineptitude combating the coronavirus pandemic and decided that enough was enough. 

Trump lost because his support slipped among white men, his most devoted base. Trump lost because he is congenitally unable to frame appeals to people that are not rooted in hate. Trump lost because he's unwilling to reach out to people who are not his base. Trump lost because he's incapable of conceiving a scenario where he loses. His ego can't accept that possibility.

Trump to nominate Judge Barrett: Time to Ignore Supreme Court?

Many people were upset that thanks to McConnell and crew changing their minds about when Presidents should be able to appoint Supreme Court Justices in election years that it now appears that President Trump will be able to make a third appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court. 

There's almost nothing that the Democrats can do to stop this. There is no longer any Senate filibuster for Supreme Court nominations. The Democrats don't have the votes in the Senate. 

The latest news seems to confirm that President Trump will nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a current judge for the Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit to take the empty seat on the Supreme Court. Barrett is obviously a right-winger. Although she's not all that different from any run of the mill right wing justice that would be considered under this administration, as this Vox article pointed out, because of some inappropriate comments by California Democratic Senator Feinstein, some social conservatives consider Barrett something of a martyr. So they will presumably be excited to "own the libs" by getting Barrett nominated and confirmed to the Supreme Court, particularly if they can get it done before election day.

That's actually not all that interesting to me. Everyone on the other side always says that if so-n-so gets confirmed to the Supreme Court that the skies will fall, the dead will rise from the graves and eat the living, and you wont be able to download updates on your phone. And sometimes such people are even correct.

My take is that if I and those I care about make it home without being harassed, assaulted, or murdered by the police then it's been a good day. And liberal or not, Supreme Courts are unable or unwilling to do much about that. So though I didn't care about the specific partisan reactions I was very interested in the fact that many people who are, very broadly speaking, on the same (left) political spectrum as I am, started calling for some changes to how courts are shaped and populated and how the Senate is constructed.

Joe Biden and Tara Reade Double Standards

I don't know if presumptive 2020 Democratic Presidential candidate, former Vice-President Joe Biden sexually assaulted Tara Reade in 1993. People who dislike Biden will be likely to believe that he did it. 

Alleged sexual harassment or assault aside, Biden does inarguably have a very long and public history of putting his hands on women or girls to whom he is not married and with whom he presumably has not had consensual intimacy. Biden has behaved in a way that in today's corporate world could see a man of lesser status reprimanded or even terminated. Does the existence of smoke mean that there's fire?

Biden partisans or those who just want control of the Presidency will be less likely to believe that Biden sexually assaulted Tara Reade. They will scream about Republican dirty tricks, say that Trump's gotta go no matter what, claim that Reade is a (insert contemptuous word for woman of low morals), or simply say that the Biden they know would never have done anything like that.

For too many people across the political spectrum, due process, proof, and skeptical inquiry (especially) for sexual crimes have become concepts that are ONLY to be granted to people that agree with you or look like you. They are NEVER basic human rights guaranteed to people who differ from you politically or have the "wrong" set of chromosomes. 

Bernie Sanders Drops Out

As you may have heard Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign to become the Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

He still intends to carry on a battle for his vision at the Democratic Convention.

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont ended his presidential candidacy on Wednesday, concluding a quest that elevated him as a standard-bearer of American liberalism and clearing the way for a general election between the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr., and President Trump at a time of national crisis.

“I cannot in good conscience continue to mount a campaign that cannot win and which would interfere with the important work required of all of us in this difficult hour,” Mr. Sanders said, adding, “While this campaign is coming to an end, our movement is not.”

If Mr. Biden, the former vice president, can now lay claim to the Democratic nomination, he still faces considerable challenges in uniting the party and mobilizing a broad base of voters for the November election. Unlike Mr. Sanders, Mr. Biden inspired little enthusiasm among young voters, nor did he develop signature policy proposals. He triumphed because many voters rejected Mr. Sanders’s policy agenda as too far to the left and prohibitively expansive, and were convinced that Mr. Biden had the best chance to beat Mr. Trump in November.

I don't think Biden is a particularly strong candidate, although Sanders certainly had his issues. I believe that Biden is suffering from some cognitive or verbal declines. I think that Biden and his team underestimate Trump's nastiness and combativeness. About 40-45% of the electorate is devoted to Trump. I don't think there are too many Trump voters who will be amenable to reasoned arguments. Biden still has to give it the old college try though.

Sanders and Biden Debate

"Last of all Bernie stood alone. Then he cast aside his shield, and wielded an axe two-handed; and it is sung that the axe smoked in the black blood of the troll-guard of Clinton until it withered, and each time that he slew Bernie yelled: ‘Medicare for All!! Power to the People!!!’ Seventy times he uttered that cry, but they took him at last alive, by the command of Biden, for the Democrats grappled him with their hands, which clung to him still though he hewed off their arms; and ever their numbers were renewed, until at last he fell buried beneath them. Then Clinton bound him and dragged him to MSNBC headquarters with mockery."
-Apologies to J.R.R. Tolkien

Senator Bernie Sanders was defeated convincingly in most states, including my own, this past Tuesday, March 10. Although Sanders is down, he's not yet mathematically eliminated. Sanders still has a most unlikely path to victory. Sanders must win the remaining races with about 60% of the vote. Sanders is making some reconciliation sounds to Biden voters while still planning to debate Biden Sunday night. 

Compared to four or certainly eight years ago, Biden is having more challenges getting the right words to come out of his mouth. He's forgetting more. Is it dementia? It may happen to us all if we live long enough. Sanders is apparently hoping that when he gets Biden one-on-one he can press Biden on issues, evoke some gaffes, and put a verbal beatdown on Biden so that Biden "ain't pretty no more". 

Evidently aware of some of Biden's issues and unwilling to provide any more ammunition to the Trump campaign, some of Biden's supporters have called upon the Democratic Party to cancel the remaining debates and/or for Sanders to concede.

Super Tuesday Is Underway

Today is Super Tuesday , in which about one-third of the total Democratic delegates will be awarded. After Super Tuesday is completed, about 40% of the total delegates will have been awarded. 

There will be 1300 delegates awarded today. A candidate needs 1991 to win. Specifically in order to stop the seeming ascension of Bernie Sanders, former candidates Klobuchar and Buttigieg dropped out. 

Steyer also dropped out. Klobuchar and Buttigieg endorsed Biden, as did fellow former candidate Beto O'Rourke, though he did so without any attacks on Sanders. 

O'Rourke went out of his way to point out that whoever wound up winning the Democratic nomination would have to get the support of Democrats who didn't vote for him. The best method to do that probably doesn't involve insulting the intelligence, maturity and preferences of other Democratic voters.

Biden stomped Sanders in South Carolina and injected new life into his campaign, to the point where  I was surprised to see that the fivethirtyeight site gives Biden a better chance than Sanders of winning a majority and/or a plurality of votes today.

Overall, the model has “no majority” happening 61 percent of the time, a Biden majority 31 percent of the time and a Sanders majority 8 percent of the time. Anyone else winning a majority would require a minor miracle.

Democratic Debate: The Knives Come Out For Bernie

I didn't have the time or the energy to watch all of the televised recent South Carolina Democratic debate. My Day Job Boss has made it clear that it would be in my interest to arrive to work earlier. But the parts of the debate that I did see fit perfectly in line with The Janitor's prescient predictions. It was pretty eerie actually. 

As you may have heard pundits, statisticians and self-serving politicians say before, Black people are a slight majority of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina.  Black men are 20% of Democratic primary voters while Black women are 35% of Democratic primary voters.This is thanks to mass incarceration and an almost complete abandonment of the Democrats by Southern whites who have a rather strong dislike of any political party that includes you know who. Any politician worthy of the name knows who his or her audience is. Here is what The Janitor had to say:
Democratic debate tonight in South Carolina so get ready for 2 hours of shameless pandering like:

Warren: "You know when my brothers joined the military they made friends with a black soldier. True story."
Bernie: "I once marched (all the way in the back of the crowd) with Dr. King..."
Klobuchar: "We gave you Prince. You're welcome."
Buttigieg: 😶
Bloomberg: "So about that stop & frisk, you see what had happened was..."
Biden: "O-hibety hoo-blah-Bama..."
Steyer: "I bought the rights to reparations, shrimp n grits, Migos, cocoa butter, Red Lobster biscuits, and Beats by Dre."

Warren Destroys Bloomberg At Debate

At the recent Democratic debate in Las Vegas, Senator Elizabeth Warren showed what happens when one person (that would be her) comes to the debate prepared and fiercely determined to show everyone she's still in it to win it, while another person (that would be former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg) saunters into a debate evidently not having bothered to do minimal preparation. 

Bloomberg apparently thought that his wealth and support from certain anti-Sanders media pundits meant that he was above the fray. It was seemingly inevitable that Bloomberg was going to win the Democratic nomination, despite having been a Republican just five minutes ago. In Bloomberg's mind, this debate was just a dog and pony show that for some reason he had to join. Senator Warren didn't see things that way.

Professor Warren (she was my brother's professor at Harvard) not only laid hands on the supercilious Bloomberg, she broke his jaw, kicked in his ribs, hit him upside the head with a brick, kneecapped him with an icepick, and shot him twice with a .45. And THEN she really went to work on him. Before she was finished I was expecting to get a late night call from Warren telling me to meet her at my northern Michigan property with shovels, duct tape and a tarp.

Biden Urged to End All Deportations

I don't see deportation of illegal immigrants from the United States as an a priori moral outrage. I've written why elsewhere at length and won't belabor the point again.

Every national political community is bounded. Nations have rules for who is a member and who isn't, who can stay and who can't. Politics require boundaries. Almost every nation on the planet has boundaries that were at some point established or defended by violence. Every single Western Hemisphere nation was created through some combination of European invasion and settlement, African enslavement, Indigenous subordination and/or genocide. Every last one. 

The US Federal government and corporations have long turned a blind eye to the continuous arrival of various illegal immigrants, many of whom originated from Spanish speaking nations. The US only has the funds to deport a small fraction of the estimated 11-22 million illegal immigrants currently resident.

Unsurprisingly some advocates for illegal immigrants view this forbearance as exploitable weakness. Some demand an end to all deportations. Current Democratic Presidential candidate, former VP Joe Biden was recently hectored to commit to ending all deportations. Biden refused to do so and acerbically suggested that the speaker go vote for Trump.

Bloomberg Running for President?

Sometimes I wish that instead of going into the increasingly unremunerative field of accounting based related information technology I had starting a polling business aimed at telling arrogant billionaires what they wanted to hear. 

Because the only reason that Michael Bloomberg could possibly think that he could become President is that he paid a lot of money to have someone tell him that  he could win. Bloomberg apparently believes that Americans will be lining up to vote for a supercilious control freak with a stop-and-frisk fetish. If Bloomberg does officially enter the race and wind up on the debate stage, don't be surprised if his security detail makes a beeline to stop and frisk Senator Cory Booker. Never can be too sure you know.

Michael R. Bloomberg is actively preparing to enter the Democratic presidential primary and is expected to file paperwork this week designating himself as a candidate in at least one state with an early filing deadline, people briefed on Mr. Bloomberg’s plans said.

Mr. Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor and billionaire businessman, has been privately weighing a bid for the White House for weeks and has not yet made a final decision on whether to run, an adviser said. But in the first sign that he is seriously moving toward a campaign, Mr. Bloomberg has dispatched staffers to Alabama to gather signatures to qualify for the primary there. Though Alabama does not hold an early primary, it has a Friday deadline for candidates to formally enter the race.

Clinton Smears Gabbard as Republican and Russian Stooge

Recently, former Presidential candidate Hilary Clinton slithered out of hiding to accuse current Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard of being a favorite of the Russians and of being groomed by the Russians. Clinton also said that former Presidential candidate Jill Stein was a Russian asset. 

The relevant quotes are below. Clinton later said she was misunderstood and that she meant the Republicans, not the Russians, were grooming Gabbard. She didn't make any corrections on her accusations about Jill Stein. 

Clinton: "Well, I think there's going to be two parts and I think it's going to be the same as 2016: ..

"They're also going to do third party again. And I'm not making any predictions but I think they've got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third party candidate. She's the favorite of the Russians. They have a bunch of sites and bots and other ways of supporting her so far, and that's assuming Jill Stein will give it up. Which she might not, 'cause she's also a Russian asset."

Will Trump Be Impeached?

I certainly hope that Trump will be impeached. Impeachment doesn't necessarily mean removal from office as former President Bill Clinton would be the first to tell you.

But both substantively and politically I think it would be a good thing for the Democrats to impeach Trump. 

It is outrageously unethical and likely illegal for a sitting President to attempt to coerce a foreign head of state to start an investigation into the family of an American political rival. That's just wrong. I am not interested in hearing about what everyone else may have done any more than the cop who stops you for doing 89 MPH in a 60 MPH zone is interested in hearing your defense that you were just keeping up with traffic. 

It's wrong. You did it. Face the consequences.

Most of the people warning the Democrats about the horrible dangers of proceeding down the impeachment road do not exactly have the best interests of Democrats, liberals, or anyone other than Donald Trump on their mind. When a bully tells his victim that if the victim fights back the bully will just beat him up worse, the bully is just trying to ensure that the victim remains in a submissive defensive crouch. 

Bullies HATE the idea of victims fighting back. Similarly Republicans have gotten used to telling Democrats all of the horrible things that will happen if Democrats actually start fighting back against Republicans. Well yes, some horrible things might happen. Democrats do have some loony ideas that are not as popular as some people on twitter think.

Democratic Debate Impressions

Tulsi Gabbard debates Kamala Harris

The two recent Democratic Presidential debates were entertaining. Everyone tried to take down Biden. Tulsi Gabbard smacked Kamala Harris around like Harris owed her money or had stolen her man. Even for a politician, Cory Booker oozed insincerity. If I hear him do that fake overemphasis on a syllable or word to show he cares one more time...

Julian Castro continued to press for decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Elizabeth Warren showed that just because she sounds nice you had better not forget that she can and will open a can of whoop-a$$ on anyone challenging her preferred big plans.  

Warren: "You know, I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the United States just to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for. I don’t get it."

Bernie Sanders made an apparent alliance of opportunity and stood back to back with Elizabeth Warren as the two spent a good deal of the night fending off attacks from rivals who insisted that their more progressive plans were unworkable, too expensive, damaging to the middle class and would help re-elect Donald Trump.

We'll see but my take is that some candidates are mistaken if they think people line up to drop their private health coverage for Medicare coverage while paying higher taxes to do so. The larger issue lurking behind that is "equality". The problem is that freedom and equality don't always go hand in hand, as Vonnegut pointed out all those years ago in Harrison Bergeron.