The Unstoppable Donald Trump?

Donald J. Trump has won three out of the first four Republican primaries or caucuses. He's gleefully ignored or changed the rules on what is proper political speech and prudent behavior in a Republican political race. Trump has insulted and feuded with Fox News personalities, made fun of war hero Senator John McCain, mused about being able to commit felonies and still win, said good things about Planned Parenthood and the necessity of some sort of national health system, called his opponents liars and derogatory names for women's genitalia, retweeted white supremacist talking points, talked about punching protesters in the face, joked about shooting Muslims with bullets dipped in pig's blood, called Bush a liar and blamed him for 9-11, joked that if his daughter wasn't his daughter he might, well you know, and on and on and on. That's not even the half of it. Statements that would have quickly sunk another campaign either have had no impact on Trump's supporters or have actually increased their admiration and fervor. Unless there is some sort of unforeseen meltdown (someone gets footage of Trump doing a Ray Rice on his wife Melania) it's a pretty good bet that Trump will be the 2016 Republican nominee for President. Trump's recent win in Nevada where he both inspired record turnout and received 46% of the vote makes it unlikely that anyone on the Republican side will beat him. Trump even got 45% of the Hispanic vote. This was a little surprising considering that the received wisdom has been that to criticize illegal immigration is to throw away the Hispanic vote. Apparently that's not true with Nevada Hispanic Republicans. Of late Ben Carson has consistently been making lame jokes about being surprised and grateful that the debate moderators ask him questions. He's the only one still laughing about his dumpster fire of a campaign. Rubio hasn't won a contest anywhere but constantly talks as if he's the front runner. Confidence is good I guess but there's a thin line between that and delusion. Rubio is in the process of crossing it. Trump is currently polling ahead of Rubio in Rubio's home state of Florida for goodness sake! Cruz likes to talk about how he's the only man who has beaten Trump. And that's true. But he's only done it once. Can Cruz beat Trump again? Can he do it consistently? I don't think so. Kasich has so far been an after thought.

Some are convinced that if Trump is the nominee that the Republicans will lose in a historic landslide to Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee. So some Republican "establishment" types or hardcore conservatives who don't believe in Trump's dedication to anything other than himself are now calling for everyone except either Rubio or Cruz to drop out of the race so that Rubio or Cruz can get all of those non-Trump votes. The problem with this is that Donald Trump is someone's second choice too. There's no guarantee that a narrow field gives the anti-Trump candidate 51% of the vote. Once Carson and Kasich depart, Trump's numbers could go up. There was some data from the 2012 election which showed that white turnout, especially among non-college educated Midwest middle class and lower-class whites was down. This just happens to be a group with whom Trump is currently resonating very strongly. Although I still think it very unlikely it's possible that in the fall election this group comes out in such numbers that one or two formerly safely blue Midwest states turn red. And if that happens, well then hello President Trump. Turnout and motivation will mean everything this fall. Should Trump lose decisively to Clinton (after all Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are swing states now) the Republican wailing and gnashing of teeth will be horrible to behold. Losing to a black guy was bad enough but to lose to a woman will make heads explode. But if Trump wins, look for Democrats to rediscover their dedication to strict separation of powers, a slow moving Senate and a reigned in executive branch. We live in interesting times. If nothing else we should learn from Trump's rise that there aren't quite as many Republicans as we thought who are ardent free trader interventionists dedicated to low capital gains taxes, low tariffs and porous borders. Class and nationalism (and its uglier kissing cousin racism) still have roles to play. The idea of making America great again is enticing some people. And it's not just because they're racist, though many are. There are people who feel forgotten and overlooked. And some of the medical data is confirming that. I think that Trump is lying to those folks but he's the only one even talking to them. And that apparently counts. In tonight's debate look for Cruz and/or Rubio to come after Trump with everything they've got. Time is running out.

Movie Reviews: The Visit

The Visit
directed by M. Night Shyamalan

This is a found footage thriller or horror film that combines a hidden intelligence with plenty of references to classic Western fairy tales. And of course as it is a Shyamalan film there is going to be a very big twist that takes the story somewhere different. As you know that going into the film it reduces the shock just a bit but nonetheless the film still manages to be interesting and mildly surprising. I guessed wrong on a few surprises. Perhaps I am just dumb but at the very least I was entertained by some of the surprises. Smarter or more discerning viewers may think that some of the plot twists are too predictable. So as always YMMV. If you are fortunate enough that some or all of your grandparents are still alive and cogent then you should take every opportunity remaining to talk to them and learn from them. They may have insights into who your parents are and indeed into who you are. And if nothing else it can be humorous to watch parents who demand strict deference/obedience from you give a modified form of this deference to their own parents. Grandparents are also usually great ones for spoiling their grandkids and passing down family knowledge and heirlooms from days long past. With all of this in mind fifteen year old Becca (Olivia DeJonge) and her thirteen year old brother Tyler (Ed Oxenbould) decide that the time has come to visit their maternal grandparents. Their divorced mother (Kathryn Hahn) has long been estranged from her parents because of her marriage to Becca's and Tyler's father. But she won't give any details about what happened (besides the marriage) to cause her and her parents to refuse to speak or visit with each other for over a decade. That's her business. She's not the sort of parent to share painful private things with her kids, than you very much.

Now that her mother is happily dating again, Becca, a budding young filmmaker, thinks that it would be great to visit her grandparents, find out some family secrets, make a documentary about her family and hopefully arrange a reconciliation. Tyler, a would be rapper with serious OCD issues arising from his parents' divorce, doesn't mind tagging along with big sis on this visit. So the dynamic duo of siblings go over the river and through the woods to finally meet their Nana (Deanna Dunagan) and Pop-Pop (Peter McRobbie). The grandparents are delighted to at long last see their beloved grandchildren. And this feeling is shared by Becca and Tyler. At first anyway. When they reach the farmhouse the kids learn they will need to share a room. Nana is not crazy about being on camera and seems to regard her granddaughter with something approaching suspicion. Pop-Pop is very forgetful and prone to mumbling to himself. He tells the children that he and his wife like to turn in early so he would greatly appreciate it if Becca and Tyler would stay in their room after 9:30 PM. Pop-Pop is serious about this. When the siblings talk to their mother via Skype she assures them that old people like her parents have all sorts of physical and mental frailties. So it's no biggie. And their mother would love to chat more but she's on a cruise with her new younger boyfriend. She has certain emotional and physical needs of her own which must be met. So she's gotta go. So Becca and Tyler are on their own for the week that they're staying with Nana and Pop-Pop. Becca and Tyler gradually decide that they are less interested in finding out about their mother's disagreements with her parents and more interested in learning why Nana and Pop-Pop are just so weird. And that's just about enough plot description I think.

This movie does a a good job in slowly ramping up the sense of dread. Little asides that you may not even have noticed turn out to have meaning later on in the narrative. Although it's an ensemble film Dunagan (especially) and McRobbie steal most of the scenes in which they appear. There is a fair amount of comedy between the two oft bickering siblings which may resonate with folks who aren't only children. It's hard for a found footage movie to legitimately come up with reasons why certain events would be on film but The Visit manages to get around most of the objections a rational viewer would have on that front. There are all the normal horror film cliches which you have come to know and love (or hate). This was a  PG-13 film which did not have a huge amount of depicted violence. Nevertheless it does have some legitimate scares for the unwary. It mixes a healthy amount of unease with occasionally offbeat humor.
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Game of Thrones Season 6 Teaser

Even with the death of you know who we haven't yet had any Game of Thrones trailers which would indicate if he's still (implausibly) alive or not. I'm pretty sure he will be brought back to life somehow because I think the story absolutely requires him to be. But I've been wrong before. Who knows what GRRM or rather Benioff and Weiss have in store for us this season. The showrunners are playing things pretty close to the vest for the late April Season Six premiere. So far all we have is this teaser, which has no footage from the new season at all. So make of it what you will.

As you may have heard GRRM recently announced that he had not completed The Winds of Winter, the planned book six in his A Song of Ice and Fire series. It would not be available before the April Game of Thrones premiere. GRRM felt bad about this but it is what it is. This means that even if HBO extends the series to eight seasons instead of seven the ending will most definitely be seen on television instead of being revealed in print. This conclusion was actually obvious last year as Season Five moved into uncharted territory but GRRM's announcement made it official. So I guess in one aspect we are fortunate that HBO insisted that GRRM share his planned ending with Benioff and Weiss. Still it has been five years since book five. It's a fair question as to what GRRM has been doing with his time. Noted fan Conan O'Brien couldn't tolerate not knowing what was going on so he did a little investigating. See video below.

The Professor and The Police

As I've made clear on many occasions in this space I'm not overly fond of the police. Just as a general rule if police are talking to you for any length of time something has probably gone wrong in your day. All else equal police are usually quicker to initiate and escalate aggressive action against Black citizens than they are against Caucasian ones whether it it be shooting people only armed with wallets or toy guns, choking people accused of selling loose cigarettes, arresting professors who are entering their own home or writing people tickets for incredibly obscure and vague traffic violations which only ever seem to be enforced against Black people. There is a problem with policing in this country. After saying that though police do have a job to do. They are necessary. I don't want police not to arrest anyone. Humans aren't saints. We never will be. I just want police to stop being needlessly violent, racist, brutal or bullying. When I first saw this story headline I was primed to find fault with the police officers' action. But after reading the story I couldn't see what the police did wrong. And believe me I looked.  A black Princeton professor is protesting her arrest during a traffic stop last week, saying she was mistreated because of her race by two white police officers who searched her and handcuffed her to a table. The police chief in Princeton, N.J., however, said the officers had followed department policy in arresting the professor, Imani Perry. The arrest of Dr. Perry, a professor of African-American studies, and the divergent views of how it was handled have reignited a debate on social media over police tactics and racial profiling. The arrest came after officers stopped Dr. Perry around 9:30 a.m. on Saturday for driving 67 miles per hour in a 45 m.p.h. zone, Capt. Nicholas K. Sutter, the department chief, said in a telephone interview on Tuesday.
While Dr. Perry said in a message posted online that she was arrested over “a single parking ticket,” Captain Sutter said that the officers who stopped her — a man and a woman — learned during a routine check that her driving privileges had been suspended and a warrant had been issued for her arrest over two unpaid parking violations from 2013. “The warrant commands the officer to take the person into custody,” Captain Sutter said. The officers searched, handcuffed and placed Dr. Perry into a squad car, the captain said. At the police station, she was handcuffed to a workstation and booked. After paying outstanding fines totaling $130, he said, she was released. Dr. Perry, who declined to comment via email on Tuesday, wrote about the episode on Twitter and Facebook on Monday, saying it had left her humiliated and frightened.
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So I'm not sure what the good professor expected the police to do in this situation. If you are really doing 67 mph in a 45 mph zone chances are good that the police will notice that and stop you. If you're doing 22 mph above the speed limit, no matter what your race there is a good probability that you will receive a ticket. Once the police have stopped and identified you, if they discover that you're driving on a suspended license and have an outstanding arrest warrant, your travel plans are going to change. It's virtually a sure bet that they will ask you to (and by ask I mean make) accompany them to the nearest local police station or jail to get things sorted out. And being police they will likely use the imperative mood and imperious tones of voice that are guaranteed to rub you the wrong way. 
Now the original underlying parking tickets may well have been issued by racist cops looking to mess with black people for their own amusement or to meet revenue quotas. I wouldn't have been surprised at all. We've seen that sort of thing all over the US, most infamously in Ferguson. The tickets may have been ridiculous. But if you are a victim of such an occurrence your choice is to fight them in court or pay them. Doing neither will simply make matters worse as we saw in this situation. Maybe I'm missing something but from the article it appears that the police did what they were supposed to do. It is a fact that police routinely mistreat black people or other non-black people whom they perceive as being powerless. It is also a fact that in any given individual case you have to show some form of mistreatment. And I just didn't see that in this case, even predisposed as I am to expecting it. Of course maybe the police are lying. Maybe they were already profiling the professor. But if so it's not apparent from anything the professor says. There are very real cases of bias in the world. Mentioning this incident in relation to them trivializes more dangerous police encounters.  Again I understand that the professor did not like her run-in with the police. Most people don't. I certainly haven't.  But in this individual case I think some perspective is of use.

Omarosa and Bra Sizes; Killer Mike and Uteri

In the early days of Donald Trump's reality show The Apprentice, one of the more unpleasant contestants was one Omarosa Manigault. She was combative, sarcastic, dishonest and above all, snide. Of course, being a jerk can make for good television. Omarosa took pains to point out that she was there to win the contest (she didn't win), and that behavior which might otherwise be considered within the normal modes of competition was considered underhanded and nasty when practiced by a woman, especially a black woman. Maybe so. Omarosa has said that the television shows edited depictions to show storylines which producers felt were more entertaining. Probably so. If you're watching reality tv and thinking it is real, you might need help tying your shoes every morning. On the other hand sometimes when there is smoke there is fire. Fast forward 12 years and after a number of other reality shows, Omarosa has resurfaced as a Trump media surrogate. Recently she was on Fox Business Channel defending her preferred candidate against questions about his seriousness from Fox contributor Tamara Holder. But perhaps unintentionally reflecting both the insult happy nature of Donald Trump and the foolishness of all thing Fox related while revealing her own bile, Omarosa decided to engage in some ad hominem (ad feminem?) attacks on Holder. These attacks were centered around Holder's chest size. Okay then. I guess Omarosa felt threatened in some regard? Or maybe she was just saying what she thought Trump might say in a similar position. Or perhaps she really is just an unpleasant individual. I am not seeing what someone's physical attributes have to do with pronouncing their name correctly but such logic is not necessarily shared by everyone on this planet. I was always taught that in a professional environment that you do not comment on anyone's body parts. I'm trying (and failing) to imagine saying something similar to anyone at work. That wouldn't and couldn't happen. But if it did take place I suspect I would need to look for other employment. And I wouldn't even have to wait two weeks to start searching.

But Omarosa wasn't the only campaign surrogate to raise some eyebrows by impassioned defense of her preferred choice for President.

As we discussed earlier Hillary Clinton has suggested, via surrogates and less frequently via her own statements, that people, especially women, should vote for her in part because she is a woman. It is true that in that aspect Mrs. Clinton would be different from all previous Presidents. It's not clear though that just being a woman necessarily means that you would bring about the sort of change that most US voters, even most US women, would find of value. The backlash and resentment against a woman President might be greater than the realistic change in economic, political and social standards that she could create. And of course women differ on all sorts of things just as any other arbitrary group of people would. In the media there have been plenty of recent news and opinion pieces quoting women of various ages and races explaining that for a variety of reasons that Clinton doesn't have or deserve a lock on the women's vote, or their vote. Shared chromosomes don't imply lockstep voting. Bernie Sanders' surrogate, the rapper/activist Killer Mike, who does not share chromosomes with Clinton or any other woman, recently took to a stage at Morehouse to explain that your gender should not determine your vote or your morality. However he was accused by some Clinton surrogates of being sexist. Now Killer Mike was quoting the noted anti-racism activist and feminist Jane Elliot. Perhaps the words sting less coming from a woman than from a man. But no matter what gender speaks those words, I don't see them as being sexist. To be sexist would mean stating that being a woman is all by itself a disqualification for being President of the United States. And that's not what Killer Mike said. While it's inaccurate and unfair to suggest that Clinton or her supporters have said that Clinton's only qualification is being a woman, certainly Clinton is appealing to what she hopes is a desire among women voters to put "one of their own" in the big chair. That's understandable I guess. But there are other candidates who evidently want the job just as badly as Clinton does. It is unrealistic and unfair to expect them to stand down or not try to challenge Clinton's qualifications, intentions or abilities. Compared to the Republican battles so far the Democratic scrum for the nomination has been relatively collegial. I'm not saying whether that's good or bad. There are benefits and costs to each approach. Certainly the more the candidates poke, push, and prod each other the more prepared they will be for what is sure to be a very nasty general election. On the other hand there are some things which once said can't be unsaid. And these statements often are noticed by the opposition party and used in a general election fight. As the race between Sanders and Clinton tightens up look for much less politesse.

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia Dies at Age 79

Justice Antonin Scalia, arguably the United States Supreme Court's most conservative Justice, was apparently found dead today in Texas:

Per NY Post:

Associate Justice of the Supreme Court Antonin Scalia was found dead Saturday on a luxury resort in West Texas, federal officials said.

Scalia, 79, was a guest at the Cibolo Creek Ranch, a resort in the Big Bend region south of Marfa. MySanAntonio.com said he died of apparent natural causes.

Scalia arrived at the ranch on Friday and attended a private party with about 40 people, the website of the San Antonio Express News said. When he did not appear for breakfast, a person associated with the ranch went to his room and found a body

Obviously, this has huge implications not only for the current make up of the Supreme Court (which until Scalia's death was a 5-4 conservative majority), but it also places the issue of appointing a Supreme Court Justice front and center in this 2016 Presidential election at a time when things were already beginning to heat up.

Before we address the impact of Scalia's death on the current Political climate, let us take a brief moment to look back at the man, Antonin Scalia.


Scalia was born in Trenton, New Jersey in 1936 to Italian immigrant parents.  He attended the prestigious Xavier High School in New York City where he emerged as a brilliant scholar, and later went on to graduate with honors from Georgetown University and Harvard Law School where he earned a position on the Harvard Law Review.   After graduating from law school, he went to work for the Ohio office of the large and prestigious law firm Jones Day for several years before becoming a law professor at the University of Virginia.  A few years after he arrived in Virginia he was appointed by President Nixon to the Office of Telecommunications Policy, which placed him in the spot light of fellow conservatives who respected his intellectual firepower.  Nixon soon appointed him as Assistant Attorney General of the President's Office of Legal Counsel where he helped to defend the Nixon Administration during the infamous Watergate scandal.  Scalia leveraged his political connections from the Nixon administration to catch President Reagan's attention, and Reagan appointed him to the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in 1982.   He held that seat for four years until Reagan appointed him to the Supreme Court in 1986.  On September 17, 1986, Scalia, confirmed by the Senate 98-0, became the first Italian-American Justice of the Supreme Court.

Upon being appointed to the Supreme Court, Scalia earned a reputation as the intellectual powerhouse for conservatives.  His opinions often dismantled any liberal opposition with ease.  Towards the latter part of his career, however, Scalia's opinions began to border on conservative rants more appropriate for talk radio than for the Supreme Court.  We have written about him several times here, here, here and here.

As far as what this means for today's political climate, President Obama, in theory, will have the right to appoint another Justice to take his place.  However, any proposed Justice must be confirmed by the Senate, which is currently majority Republican.  This makes getting any Obama pick an uphill battle.  If Obama is able to get a confirmation through the Senate, that will significantly change the ideological make up of the Supreme Court from 5 conservatives, 4 liberals, to 5 liberals, 4 conservatives.  It is also a strong possibility that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (age 82) would likely take this opportunity to also retire, giving Obama yet another opportunity to place another progressive voice on the bench.

To date, Obama has placed two Supreme Court Justices on the bench, and both have been women: (1) Sonia Sotomayor; and (2) Elena Kagan.  He will have the opportunity to place a third (and possibly fouth) Justice on the bench, which is historic for any President (the record being 11 Justices by President George Washington, and second place going to President FDR with 9 appointments).

Whether Obama is able to appoint Scalia's replacement or not, the appointment of the next Supreme Court Justice is guaranteed to rise to the forefront of the 2016 Presidential Election. Look for both sides to use this issue to their advantage on the campaign trail in order to motivate people to vote.

Your thoughts?

Movie Reviews: Misconduct

Misconduct
directed by Shintaro Shomosawa

This is a passably entertaining movie that ultimately doesn't live up to the promise of the cast. I thought that with Anthony Hopkins and Al Pacino I'd be getting something a little more solid but each of these gentlemen turn in graceful but strictly limited performances. They aren't the leads in this film. I wouldn't say they are just there to pick up a check. Even talent that coasts is still talent. But this isn't their film nor do they have many scenes together. This is a noirish legal drama that is less about the law (I don't recall any courtroom scenes though there is a short tense deposition) and more about the pressure to perform that might lead any of us to cut a few ethical corners or look the the other way on semi-legal activity as we try to become more materially successful. Of course there are some people who are claim to be more or less immune to the seduction and allure of more money, greater power and nicer homes so for those folks perhaps this film can serve as an interesting field study into how other people think and live. Misconduct jumps around in time in order to hide some critical narrative information and character motivation. I liked that. I liked that even as the movie concluded you weren't entirely sure who was the bad guy and who was the good guy. I didn't like that about two-thirds of the way thru the movie the writers/director had poorly developed characters doing remarkably stupid things for presumed entertainment value. The tonal clash in the final portion of the movie stunk. It was as if two different movies were grafted together. But the graft didn't take. And the dialogue in the film was nothing to write home about, again, especially near the ending. So your mileage may vary.

Ben (Josh Duhamel) is a hardworking lawyer at a New Orleans law firm. He is somewhat unhappily married to Charlotte (Alice Eve), a beautiful nurse who works just as hard as he does. The couple seems to be disappointed in each other. The primary reason for this is that their work schedules and desire for intimacy rarely coincide. When one wants to get busy the other is late for work. When one has an important personal appointment, the other one has forgotten all about it. And in something of a cliche, Charlotte is still working through her feelings over her recent miscarriage. So the couple has a lot of half-sentences, bitten lips and silent stares. Although Ben is a lawyer who is presumably well paid, he's not making the big bucks like the firm partners such as Hill (Gregory Alan Williams) and Abrams (Pacino). Ben is busting his behind working hundred hour weeks and occasionally cheating to bring in settlements for the firm. But to his bosses he's just an easily replaced drone. When Ben runs across his long lost old flame Emily (Malin Akerman) on social media he's intrigued enough or is it horny enough to arrange to meet her in person. And wouldn't you know it but Emily is the current girlfriend of shady billionaire pharmaceutical company CEO Denning (Hopkins). Emily claims to be very disaffected with her much older paramour. We see her arguing with Denning about something. Emily has a few things she'd like to give to Ben. Her first would be gift is the obvious. But the second is "proof" that Denning initiated, approved and engaged in illegal behavior involving clinical drug trials. This information is gold to a trial attorney. If Ben can use this proof in a court of law he might be able to put himself in a corner office reserved for partners. Ben might even be able to help put Denning behind bars. As Ben didn't go to an Ivy league law school he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder. He thinks that he has to go above and beyond to impress his bosses, especially Abrams, who uses pens that cost thousands of dollars.

But Ben has to be careful because apparently it matters a great deal legally just how evidence is attained. I guess you can't stand up in court and say my ex stole this evidence and later gave it to me for services joyously rendered. Who knew. I learn something new every day. But even a man like Ben who will cheat and lie in the course of his business might think twice about cheating on his wife. After all, a spouse knows you better than a boss or jury and is better situated to know when you're lying. Before you can say "And Bob's your uncle!" Ben is involved more deeply in all sorts of morally murky behavior.  He starts to wonder who is pulling his strings. Ben is under pressure because his bosses have told him that either he gets a nine figure settlement or that getting fired will be the least of his worries. There's a dapper East Asian man known only as the Accountant (Byung-hun Lee), who is apparently randomly murdering people who know Ben. Emily is kidnapped. Brusque hostage return expert Jane (Julia Stiles) wonders if Denning really wants Emily returned safe and sound. I'm leaving out the trailers for this film as they are needlessly packed with spoilers. This is not a horrible movie. It is not a great movie.  It's something that with a little more skin/sex would have been in constant rotation on Cinemax back in the day. It's fun but is not super memorable. It would have been better off if it had more courtroom drama. The music is the normal sort of overly dramatic stuff you get for these kinds of films. The film is visually very attractive but the writing is just off. I thought that Eve and Akerman might have been better served switching roles in this movie. The last minute plot contrivances are more irritating the more you think about them so it's best you don't and just go with the flow. This is definitely a lazy weekend afternoon sort of film. Don't think too much and the film is decent.